The home supply will rise nationally next year — but probably not in the Bay Area

The supply of homes is expected to increase nationally next year for the first time since 2015 — but not in the Bay Area.

Since last November, the number of active listings in the San Jose metropolitan area has declined more than 40 percent, while it has dipped 18 percent in the San Francisco metropolitan area. That’s according to, which predicted a rebound nationally in its 2018 National Housing Forecast.

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The two Bay Area “metro areas differ from the trend that we’ve observed in other parts of the country,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Next year is expected to mark “a significant inflection point in the housing shortage” for the nation as a whole, but the Bay Area picture is less rosy.

More than in most parts of the country, potential sellers choose to stay in their homes in the super-expensive Bay Area market.

Real estate agents and other industry observers chalk that up to a variety of factors: Homeowners don’t want to pay capital gains penalties, preferring to sit on their equity. Besides, where would they move in a region where numerous counties have median sales prices of more than $1 million for a single-family house?

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What’s left is an unusually tight market where buyers compete and push prices up.

Even so, the new report suggests a moderating Bay Area market, at least when compared to the conditions that existed here a few years back, when double-digit, year-over-year price growth was the norm.

The 2018 forecast from shows year-over-year sales up 2.5 percent and prices up 4.37 percent in the San Jose metropolitan area, which includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. In the San Francisco metropolitan area — which includes San Francisco, San Mateo,

Source:: The Mercury News – Lifestyle

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